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WASHINGTON (Reuters) ? President Obama's aides have persistently tried to paint Republicans as the party of the rich, with mixed results.
Now, the White House sees signs the message is resonating and Obama will try this week to seize on the momentum to gain victories on two priorities: renewing a popular tax cut and getting Senate approval for a new Wall Street regulator.
Since September, Obama has traveled the country to try to sell a $447 billion jobs package he argues is vital to reviving the lackluster economy and helping middle-class families.
So far, he has little to show for those efforts, leaving him vulnerable in the 2012 presidential campaign to Republican attacks over his economic stewardship amid stubbornly high U.S. unemployment and an anemic recovery.
But the White House is increasingly optimistic about the prospects for one part of the jobs plan: an extension of a temporary payroll tax cut that was first passed a year ago.
Obama's advisers see a split that has emerged among Republicans over the payroll tax cut as evidence they have gained an advantage on that issue.
"Our hand is very strong on this," one senior administration official said, adding that Republicans would demonstrate "historically unprecedented hypocrisy" if they try to insist they are the party of tax cuts while opposing the renewal of the payroll tax cut.
Obama's aides also believe they can gain traction for the effort to confirm Richard Cordray, who has a history of taking a tough stance toward banks, as head of the watchdog agency charged with protecting consumers from financial fraud.
Obama will try to give a boost to both priorities and hone his populist campaign message on Tuesday by channeling former U.S. President Teddy Roosevelt during a trip to Osawatomie, Kansas.
More than a 100 years ago, Roosevelt delivered a speech in Osawatomie in which he railed against big corporations and the privileged while arguing for "fair play" for ordinary Americans. Obama will echo those themes, aides said.
"The kinds of things of arguments that (Obama) will be making in Kansas ... dovetail very nicely with the importance of leveling the playing field and ensuring that the middle-class get a fair shot in a difficult economy," White House deputy press secretary Josh Earnest told reporters.
'THE BIG BATTLE'
Speaking on the NBC program "Meet the Press," longtime Obama adviser David Axelrod described the payroll tax cut extension as "the big battle" and "the big question we have to solve right now."
Emphasizing themes Obama is likely to use to push for confirmation of Cordray, Axelrod also hammered Republicans on financial regulation.
"They think if we roll back the rules on Wall Street and let Wall Street write its own rules that that will somehow accelerate the economy and profit everyday Americans," he said.
Many rank-and-file Republicans are wary of extending the holiday on payroll taxes, which provides the revenue stream for a government trust fund for the Social Security retirement program. Opponents of the tax cut - who include some Democrats - argue that continuing the tax cut would weaken the Social Security trust fund.
However, Republican leaders, including House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, have emphasized in recent days that they are willing to work with Obama to extend the cut.
Boehner spokesman Brendan Buck said the notion that Obama was managing to pressure Republicans over the tax cut was based on a "false premise" that the party is refusing to work with president on the issue.
"We offered 77 days ago to sit down and work out the details with him," Buck said. "If he wants to sit down and get it done, we think we probably can."
Without congressional action by the end of the year, the payroll tax would revert to 6.2 percent from the current rate of 4.2 percent.
Obama's Democrats are emphasizing a Senate vote last week in which Republicans refused to go along with their push to extend and expand the payroll tax cut and pay for it with higher taxes on millionaires.
Republicans have resisted confirmation of Cordray, contending that the legislation that created the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau he would head up needs to be changed to rein in the regulatory agency and make it more accountable.
A Senate vote on Cordray's nomination is tentatively scheduled for Thursday. White House officials said Obama is planning a major media blitz this week to try to pressure Republicans to approve Cordray.
With the Occupy Wall Street movement in the spotlight, Obama's efforts could play well with Democratic activists who at times have been frustrated with his reluctance to fully embrace anti-Wall Street sentiment.
Although he has referred to bankers as "fat cats," Obama has at times sought to modulate his rhetoric toward the financial industry because of wariness about upsetting markets and fear of being cast as anti-business by Republicans.
(Editing by Eric Beech)
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JERUSALEM (Reuters) ? Defense Minister Ehud Barak played down speculation on Saturday that Israel and U.S.-led allies were waging clandestine war on Iran, saying sanctions and the threat of military strikes were still the way to curb its nuclear program.
Barak was asked in an interview whether two explosions in Iran last month showed "the war has already begun" through sabotage.
"I don't think so," he told Channel Two television. "I think that the answer to your question is negative."
One of last month's explosions in Iran killed at least a dozen members of the Revolutionary Guards, including a general. Iran called it an accident that occurred while weapons were being moved.
The Iranians have suffered from computer viruses in industrial systems. Several nuclear scientists have been killed or disappeared over the years in what Tehran says were Israeli or U.S. covert operations.
The idea that such operations may have escalated to include spectacular blasts with double-digit death tolls has stirred concern in Israel, where some commentators warned of a possible spillover into reprisals by Iran or its sympathizers abroad.
Barak neither confirmed nor denied that Israel or Western powers were trying to delay Iran's uranium enrichment and missile programs through sabotage. But his remarks signaled doubt in the long-term efficacy of any such tactics.
"I have nothing to say about the actions themselves. I just say that if you compare the situation eight years ago, or four years ago, to today's situation, the Iranians are much closer to nuclear capability," he said.
"Therefore the sanctions have to be intensified, quick, determined ... and therefore everyone is saying that no option should be taken off the table," Barak added, using a phrase favored by Israel and the United States to show they consider military strikes on Iran's nuclear sites a last-ditch option.
Barak said Israel and the United States were coordinating closely on Iran, which denies seeking nuclear weapons and has vowed to retaliate for any preemptive attack.
But the Jewish state has sovereignty and ultimate responsibility for its security, Barak added - comments that, in the past, have been widely interpreted as a threat to strike Iran unilaterally if the Israelis deems diplomacy a dead end.
On Friday, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta used some of his strongest language yet to explain why Washington is wary of the consequences of any such action.
Addressing a pro-Israel forum in Washington, Panetta said an attack could disrupt the already fragile economies of Europe and the United States, trigger Iranian retaliation against U.S. forces, and ultimately spark a popular backlash in Iran that would bolster its rulers.
It also may not be effective. Panetta cited estimates from the Israelis that a military strike might set back Iran's nuclear program by one to two years "at best."
Iran has weathered several rounds of sanctions passed by the U.N. Security Council and Western powers. A U.N. watchdog report last month suggested Iran has worked on a nuclear bomb program, heightening the international pressure.
(Writing by Dan Williams; Editing by Peter Graff)
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(Reuters) ? Earlier hours and bigger promotions were the keys to success for several U.S. retailers in November, while chains that held fast to their same old holiday season strategies were dealt a blow.
Among retailers that reported monthly tallies there were clear winners, including Macy's Inc and Saks Inc, and clear losers, such as Kohl's Corp and J.C. Penney Co Inc.
Overall, sales at stores open at least a year rose, as was expected, during a critical month for the industry.
Retailers must now show whether they can keep driving profitable sales or if deep discounting and consumer disinterest beyond Black Friday weekend bargains will lead to a repeat of 2010's November boom and December bust that many experienced.
"Our concern is that deep discounting in November pulled forward sales out of December," said Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics.
Retailers rolled out midnight door-buster sales Thanksgiving night, free shipping for online orders and other special deals to entice those who may have been reluctant in the face of economic pressure, although some chains, such as J.C. Penney, decided not to go too crazy with changes this year.
"It's definitely a mixed bag," said Matt Arnold, a consumer analyst at Edward Jones in St. Louis. "It almost seems like the chains that were catering to a higher-income consumer seemed to be more the winners and more discount-oriented chains, in many instances, got off to a weaker start."
Kohl's 6.2 percent drop in same-store sales was the steepest decline among retailers and missed analysts' expectations by the widest margin. Its shares fell 7 percent.
Penney said its decision to open at 4 a.m. on Black Friday, rather than at midnight as Macy's, Kohl's and others did, hurt its performance on that day and its in-store stores remained soft throughout the holiday weekend. However, traffic on its website was strong over the weekend, but those sales will not be reported until the company's December tally.
The 20 chains that had reported monthly same-store sales as of Thursday morning posted an average increase of 3.1 percent, according to Thomson Reuters. In November 2010, such sales jumped 5.5 percent.
Click here for a graphic: http://link.reuters.com/zeb45s
The tally provides just a glimpse into total spending, as major chains such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc and Best Buy Co Inc do not issue monthly reports.
PROMOTIONS RULE
Retailers now must do what they can to see profitable gains for the rest of the holiday season -- a difficult task as many industry watchers expect that shoppers under financial stress will hold back after their weekend binge.
"Clearly, retailers bent over backwards to juice sales up for the holiday weekend," said Kurt Salmon retail strategist John Long.
He plans to watch traffic at stores this weekend to see if Black Friday was a sustainable trend or just an anomaly.
Macy's shares rose to their highest level since October 2007 after the chain said quarterly same-store sales could surpass its expectations if November's trends continue.
Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected same-store sales at Target Corp and Gap Inc showed that shoppers remained selective.
"The consumer has become insanely focused on promotions," said David Bassuk, head of the global retail practice at AlixPartners. "The consumer is willing to spend money, that's the good news. But consumers needs to be convinced."
Gap's discounts were not as aggressive as analysts said they wanted to see.
"This is just the start of the holiday selling season and we expect December to remain fiercely competitive and highly promotional," said Glenn Murphy, chairman and chief executive officer of Gap.
Over at Target, people who bought did spend more, but fewer came out to buy. Toys was one of the worst performing categories, it said. Target said it expects a "competitive and promotional environment" to persist in December with the main focus still on value.
Women's clothing retailer Talbots Inc also expects a challenging and promotional holiday season. Its shares tumbled after a disappointing quarterly loss.
Michael Niemira, chief economist of the International Council of Shopping Centers, said a same-store sales gain of 3.2 percent in November came in slightly below his expectations of 3.5 percent to 4 percent. The ICSC expects December will be stronger, with same-store sales up 3.5 percent to 4 percent.
Analysts cautioned that investors need to look at the full holiday season, not just Black Friday weekend. Those total weekend sales soared to $52.4 billion, according to the National Retail Federation, which expects full holiday season sales to rise 2.8 percent.
"Until the entire holiday season is over there is really no verdict that you can render," said Edward Jones' Arnold.
(Reporting by Jessica Wohl and Brad Dorfman in Chicago, Phil Wahba and Dhanya Skariachan in New York and Nivedita Bhattacharjee in Bangalore; Editing by Maureen Bavdek)
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New York ? Republicans are easing up on their opposition to the Democrats' push to extend a tax break for 160 million Americans. What made the GOP blink?
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell essentially conceded on Wednesday that Republicans would support President Obama's proposed extension of the payroll tax holiday. The 6.2 percent Social Security payroll tax was reduced to 4.2 percent in 2011 ? and now it looks like the measure will be repeated in 2012. However, Republicans?want to pay for it by freezing the wages of federal workers and cutting government jobs, not by hiking taxes on millionaires, as Democrats prefer. McConnell says Senate Republicans "put aside their misgivings" not because they believe, as Obama does, that the move will stimulate the economy, but because they want to "give some relief to struggling workers." Still, this is a big shift by the GOP. What changed Republicans' minds? Here, four theories:
1. Democrats outmaneuvered them
Democrats framed this issue in a way Republicans just couldn't beat, says Greg Sargent at The Washington Post. Team Obama hammered the idea that "not extending the payroll tax cut would constitute a tax hike on working people that would be harmful to the recovery." Republicans faced a stark choice: Fight Obama and protect "a tiny group of their wealthy constituents" at the expense of "a huge number of their working constituents," or cave. Heading into an election about the economy and jobs, the GOP had no choice but to back down.
SEE MORE: Can Obama save his jobs bill by splitting it up?
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2. You can't raise taxes at Christmas
Christmas is in the air, says Kelly Phillips Erb at Forbes, and that is not the time to tell people you're hiking their tax bill. President Obama knows that, which is why he kept "invok[ing] the holiday spirit" while stumping in recent days. "Don't be a Grinch," Obama said. "Don't raise taxes on Americans during the holidays." The line played well in Scranton, Pa., where unemployment is especially high. For the GOP, digging in against Obama "risks alienating more than 160 million Americans who benefited" from the payroll tax cut this year.
3. The GOP finally remembered what it stands for
The only odd thing about the GOP's position on the payroll tax cut,?says?National Review?in an editorial, is that they ever resisted the idea in the first place. "For more than a generation, the Republican Party has stood for cutting tax rates and opposing increased tax rates." Sticking to the "odd position" of opposing the Democrats would only have risked eroding the GOP's "traditional advantage on taxes, and for no good reason."
SEE MORE: 6 people celebrating the super committee's collapse
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4. They're using this is a bargaining chip to cut spending
McConnell isn't waving a white flag, says David Dayen at Firedoglake. "We are far from consensus on the contours of a payroll tax package," so when the Senate votes on Friday, "the first incarnation of a payroll tax cut extension" will probably get batted down. McConnell "most certainly doesn't agree with the Senate Democratic proposal, which widens and deepens the payroll tax cut," and pays for it with a 3.25 percent surtax on the top 0.1 percent of earners. Republicans said the Dems' plan would "crush small businesses," and they're pushing for offsetting the payroll tax break with spending cuts Democrats find "completely unacceptable."
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